eSIM is now mainstream

eSIM has gone mainstream, we’ve seen lots of eSIM coverage before this year’s MWC, which Stuart is attending. This session is a chance to understand what is the reality behind the hype. I was channelling GSMA marketing in the title for this session, Camara is an example of a overly hyped GSMA standard (bad in my opinion), while eSIM has achieved mass market adoption since its release in 2016.

What’s the reason I think eSIM has gone mainstream? Beginning with the iPhone in 2018, and in 2022 they removed the SIM tray completely. But also 60 eSIM-enabled phones were launched in the first half of 2025. Even I have an eSIM enabled phone, OnePlus 12R (North America version).

The prediction is 1.5 billion devices in 2026, up from 1.2 billion in 2025 seems large, but Stuart and I agree that the number is possible given that most phones sold now include eSIM. Stuart points out with eSIM, they are virtual, we tend to buy multiple of them, once per trip. And we still have a primary SIM in our phones, which we’ve been using for years. Stuart consumes 5 or 6 eSIMs per year. While for me, I use my carrier’s minternational pass when travelling internationally.

Carriers are evolving to eSIM, there are several carriers in the UK that are eSIM only, while most offer eSIM as its a quick way to acquire customer. Plans can be as low as 10 GBP per month, similar to the US with Tello at $10 per month.

IoT was supposed to be the driver of eSIM

I struggle to understand the IoT use cases, yes travel eSIMs to avoid roaming charges. But what are the real IoT use cases for eSIM? That’s why eSIM came into existence, IoT. The old chestnut of real-time asset tracking, remote patient monitoring, smart metering, vending machine connectivity, industrial predictive maintenance, but we’ve been talking about them for more than a decade, perhaps two. Is IoT a significant driver of growth?

Stuart highlighted one of his customers uses asset tracking in Africa, and eSIM would enable his customer to shop around for the best deal. But it requires his customer to do something. Swap over to eSIM. Hence the providers of the IoT solutions are not as motivated as their customers toward eSIM. This is an important point, and will limit the impact of eSIM in IoT. Stuart also points out many IoT use cases are also not cellular. So IoT is a small part of eSIM numbers.

Travel eSIM

I know some carriers have uncompetitive travel offers, but it’s foolish not to react to the competition from travel eSIM. Will that window close over time? Is the speed advantage of eSIM sustainable, or simply another artefact of incumbent carrier lethargy?

The gap between the wholesale and retail rates for roaming are massive. And that gap has enabled a number of providers to offer travel eSIMs. The incumbent carriers do not make that much money from roaming because of expensive dedicated team, expensive system, testing, etc.

Hamish White recently posted on travel eSIMs in the South African market. The local carriers are getting serious about travel eSIMs, it’s about control, i.e. customer retention. As the travel eSIM providers will in time move into local MVNO services, hence become a bigger threat.

Travel eSIM are is where the $$$ / action is today. How long this continues is an important question. The working assumption appears to be incumbent carriers are slow and rich, so change will be slow.

But that is changing, in some markets every penny counts and customer focus is no longer an oxymoron, it finally means something. Who would have thought that Verizon owns up to charging customers more for the same service is a bad idea, rather than “We’re Verizon, the best carrier in the world, our customers love us!”

So what’s next beyond travel eSIM? Local MVNO services? As Stuart states at the end of this session, telecoms is a game of arbitrage, if there’s a difference between what you buy and sell that’s in your favor, go for it!

Travel eSIMs are making hay while the sun shines. And will likely move into local MVNO services where regulation permits, its a bigger revenue opportunity. That ratchets up the pressure on local carriers to react. As Hamish White puts it, “”Tourist eSIM” innovation is, in reality, local prepaid economics wrapped in great distribution.”

What do you think of Global64 eSIM? With automatic switching between plans?

eSIM.net’s Global64 eSIM is a data-only, 5G-enabled travel eSIM covering 64 countries, designed for automatic activation on iPhones running iOS 26+. It offers 10GB–80GB, eliminates roaming charges, and automatically switches to the travel plan when crossing borders, then reverts to the primary SIM upon returning. Its an incremental automation, yet as long as the 64 Countries are relevant to your travel needs, it’s like a the universal travel eSIM, it just works.

Stuart makes a good point on eSIMs have changed the lifetime of a SIM, it’s now for a trip. The Global 64 offer means it works across multiple trips, using automation in iOS 26+ to perform a virtual swap. People just want a service to work, and not ‘configure’ stuff.

Also it’s a matter of trust, as long as eSIM.net delivers low pricing, it could work. Personally, my experiences with incumbent carriers has been mixed when I trusted them to act in my favor, so if my carrier offered it, I’d need to check the automation works in my favor.

Taking the transitory nature of eSIM a step further, beyond a trip, the time window could be as small as a transaction. Banks are moving in this direction, e.g. Revolut, they could protect their specific transactions through an eSIM. The cost to protect a transaction will likely be such that they could offer a full travel / local MVNO eSIM and deliver enough customer value. But where security is an issue, there could be a business case.

Are eSIM and iSIM numbers being fudged in that 1.5B number?

Here Stuart points out Analyst numbers tend towards the high side, the buyers want proof that there investments or products are on the right side of history. I find analyst numbers to be mixed, some are utter BS, while my gut feels the 1.5B eSIM number as on the optimistic side of possible, but within a 25% error margin.

Stuart highlighted the applications of travel eSIM also include getting around state firewalls and working in war zones.

Is SIM swapping with eSIM a security issue?

It’s the same problem for all SIMs. A SIM swap, or SIM hijacking, is a fraudulent attack where a scammer “convinces” your mobile carrier to transfer your phone number to a new SIM card in their possession. This allows them to intercept SMS-based two-factor authentication (2FA) codes to take over bank accounts, emails, and social media.

Scammers pay about $1k for a SIM swap through a corrupt telecom employee or partner. Stuart makes the point an enterprise can provide their own eSIM to better protect phones under their control. Security services likely have this implemented.

Will the new GSMA’s SGP.31 IoT standard have an impact on eSIM adoption?

This standard covers the remote provisioning and management of the eUICC in IoT Network Constrained and/or User Interface Constrained Devices.

Stuart sees this as having a huge impact. It enables an eSIM to be pushed onto a consumer’s device, for example from an app. Not consumer pull, rather push, which will be another driver for the 1.5B eSIM number.

Will eSIM go the way of BlackBerry? The travel eSIM market gets commoditized, becomes “just” an app

Stuart’s view is travel eSIM could go that way as carrier reaction to the risks they are being exposed to in their local markets.

However, there will always be situations of countries that have an uncompetitive incumbent monopolistic carrier. which creates an arbitrage opportunity.

The future of eSIM

eSIM will drive the further commoditization of mobile telecoms. It becomes part of your bundle. Your fixed broadband service now comes with mobile broadband, it’s just broadband. Something we’ve been talking about for several decades.

Banks support the foreign currency needs of travellers, this is extending to travel eSIMs to support their roaming needs, and could extend to local mobile service needs. If you trust your bank more than your mobile carrier it’s not that great a leap.

As barriers are further reduced, developers could create bundles associated with events, e.g. launch of a new car to capture mobile customers over the lifetime of the car. Accessing all the usage and insight for optimized insurance, that could extend beyond car insurance into medical, life, house, etc. We’ve seen a continuous battle between carriers and consumer brands, eSIM could reawaken this battle.

As mentioned, Stuart will be attending MWC, so drop him a message via Linkedin to catch up on eSIM or RCS. Here’s the RCS post I mentioned.

eSIM Exchange new week

Next week we have a session on eSIM Exchange with Ameed Jamous.