Johnny claims this is his final TADSummit podcast, he’s off to become a suck suck fish. He made a special request for Dean Bubley to be on his ‘last’ show, so of course Dean is here. Though as you’ll hear through the episode, I’m not too sure on how final this really is. Dean’s recent article, Good & bad metrics/statistics to watch at MWC, drove Johnny’s interest to have him on the show.
Johnny retold the story of his first interaction with Dean on Linkedin. How Dean beat him up with facts for a comment he made. Blame Dean for how Johnny argues on Linkedin 😉
Johnny then reviewed how we got started with the TADSummit Podcast, all the way back in September 2013, 18 months ago. Thomas Howe, STROLID, was the first guest, talking about vCon. From there Johnny got to know vCon Vinnie, the CEO of STROLID. And the rest is Italian history.
There’s lots of reminiscing on this podcast, Dean shared his responsibility for Vonage moving into CPaaS (buying Nexmo). Then Johnny shared his interaction with Vonage hitting his calling card business with cheap calling plans to India.
Johnny then segways into another Vonage story, with Legion Partners sharing how Ericsson paid 6 times the next best offer for Vonage. Dean jumps to the time when people questioned why Ericsson paid $6.2B, it definitely wasn’t because developers wanted a 5G slice. Johnny shared what drove Ericsson to pay so much cash. Prior to the acquisition, Ericsson was valued at $13B, Twilio was $80B, and Sinch was $20B. Today Sinch in $2B and Ericsson $28B.
Dean then shifted to how he’s focused on metrics, how history has people focused on the wrong metrics, like the Minute in voice. Dean’s point is the use of easy metrics, rather than good ones. Are you getting conversation whiplash yet?
Johnny brought it back to my “intervention” on this podcast. How we should focus on the actions of Don Dario, rather than its members. Dean brings up a fun point there’s OG MEF (Original MEF, Metro Ethernet Forum) and Mobile Ecosystem Forum.
Johnny highlights all the good work we’ve done through the podcast, in helping people find jobs, companies find exceptional talent, raise funding, awareness for geeky startups, finding partners and customers. How it’s not the MEF, its DonDario that is singling me out for sharing the truth.
Does that mean not highlighting the problems companies have in programmable telecoms, see the latest with Google? Or the billions being stolen from businesses with AIT; or price rises of 250%, 267%, and 6600% for international A2P SMS through artificial monopolies in LATAM? The facts are published, they are all based on publicly available documentation. The lack of industry action is shameful. I’ll have to think about it.
Johnny quotes the CTIA numbers of $54B annual investment in mobile networks, $591B invested from 2011-2022. His position is the numbers are made up, its done to justify valuations. Which is reflected in T-Mobile’s current valuation of $300B.
Johnny asked why Dean doesn’t partner with hedge funds or PE groups. Generally they do not spend money. We’ve both found GLG Group is the easier way to get cash from them. Dean shares some funny stories on his time as an equity analysts.
Dean provides a great insight on using AI to make a guess on how a business’s aggregate numbers likely break down. I’m going to test that one out. He and Johnny share examples across wireless companies aggregating fixed and mobile 5G traffic, and Twilio presenting themselves as a SaaS company not an aggregator.
There’s a discussion on the satellite industry and its impact on mobile, Dean puts it simply: it has value, but it’s a small piece of the overall industry. The reason for Starlink is cash flow for SpaceX, that’s a great insight.
Johnny’s final question for Dean is AI. He’s cautiously optimistic, thinks some oversight is required, but in 3 years it will be ‘just there.’ They have a disagreement on industry awards, as I’ve said many times, the only award that matters is when an customer chooses your business. Overall, a highly entertaining podcast with a vast scope.
Don’t forget to sign up to Dean’s Unthinkable Lab: How to Unstick Telecoms in Europe. Exploring the Exceptional: Unthinkable Lab is a unique, multi-stakeholder event to challenge conventional thinking in European Telecoms, by Dean Bubley and Andrew Collinson.
