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Bait and switched into another Truth in Telecoms. Robert (The Vis) thought he was entering an industry beauty contest (really?) only to discover Johnny had an inquisition’s worth of questions.

This really is a great review of the state of the industry and so many of the issues covered up by industry bodies. Industry bodies represent their sponsors, not the industry. Telcos, developers, end customers be damned; as long as their sponsors continue their shenanigans. This is why industry bodies (except GSMA and ITU) are irrelevant to Bird.

Johnny reviewed some of the history of Iris Wireless and Syniverse. The Vis shared his experience with Syniverse is excellent at the working level.

We discussed the migration away from CPaaS. Enterprises want solutions, that is applications, not APIs. I’ve been pointing this out for several years. We see that in the announcement this week from Cisco ‘merging’ CPaaS into CCaaS. Look at what the customers want, applications not APIs. Others have merged UCaaS and / or collaboration with CPaaS. SignalWire has moved to PUC (Programmable Unified Communications). All moving away from APIs to applications that are integrated with enterprise workflows; and all the other applications enterprises use, e.g. AI models, identity verification, security, etc.

The Vis shared a great insight on the 3 trends impacting the shift in the industry:

• Brands trying to lower SMS pricing, failing and moving to other channels;
• Carriers trying to raise pricing, yet revenues remain flat as volumes decrease; and
• Loads of fraud.

The Vis makes a simple yet powerful statement, fraud is really bad for an industry. Some of the largest AIT generators are members of industry bodies, even members of their fraud committee. Hence the lack of action, even through the impact of fraud is known.

In the Definitive Truth in A2P SMS we cover the systematic frauds across SMS history. The lack of control and coordination, enabling criminals to make a fraudulent buck before moving on when carriers implement action for the benefit of their customer. Hence why we listed out the necessary actions:

• Implementing Augnet, SMS certification;
• Publishing and harmonizing SMS rates;
• Implementing A2P SMS revenue assurance;
• Close down the SIM Farms once and for all using Wadaro; and
• Carriers taking back control over the service their customers are paying them for.

The current situation is “end of life” pricing, raising prices and driving brands away from SMS. It’s not dead, but will be a slow terminal decline.

Brand behavior is: rise of omnichannel; software trend (applications not APIs); and migration away from SMS, for example to passkeys. This has driven Bird’s strategy.

I love The Vis highlighting how the TAM (Total Addressable Market) is vastly overstated as SMS recirculate around the industry. I’ve made that point many times. 5 companies passing $200M between then does not make a $1B TAM.

We have much more to come in Parts 2 and 3. We’re going to have fun with all the shorts.

Here is the 90 minute video covering parts 1 (this post), part 2 and part 3. You have been warned, for extreme fans only.