Podcast 105: Truth in Telecoms, 10 Global Predictions for 2025

Last week I gave with Commio a presentation on 10 Predictions for 2025. Those were more US focused as that’s the focus of Commio’s business. Several people asked that I do a version more globally focused. So here it is:

Here is a quick review of what I covered, the structure is similar to the Commio session, but I bring out the differences between the markets around the world. Slides are available here.

Can CSPs (Campaign Service Providers) / local aggregators survive?

In the The Great LATAM A2P SMS Robbery I explained how businesses in LATAM are being subjected to 250%, 267%, and 6600% price increases for international A2P SMS as global aggregators squeeze out the local aggregators. We’re seeing even local A2P SMS price increases of 1125%.

All data is referenced, absolutely no lies. If anyone makes such a claim, ask them to prove it. If anyone threatens you for liking my post, ignore them and let me know about the threat. Yes the CPaaS market is quite dirty these days.

Back to the A2P SMS story, it’s the usual ploy from a global aggregator, persuading a local telco to run an RFP, where the global aggregator offers the largest upfront lump sum and squeezes out the local aggregator through being selected as the exclusive aggregator.

The GSMA needs to let all telcos know, such exclusive deals result in higher prices for everyone, and the rise of AIT, as this is how the global aggregator makes enough money to pay for the lump sum. Local regulators should also take a much more active role in stopping these deals.

Local aggregators survived in the past through being the local champion. Doing what is right for their country. Their honesty and integrity has served their country well.

The telco and regulator are the local aggregators’ best defense. However, protection has not been consistent, local aggregators have survived by moving out of some segments of A2P SMS aggregation, and into other locally relevant segments such as payments, local innovation support, local initiative such as economic development and inclusion, etc.

Focusing on the CSPs in the US, it’s also been a tough time. Lied to by large aggregators on services being closed down, changing providers for an inferior service, and then discovering the original service was not closes down. Firing customers because of their spam, which also affects other businesses using the same CSP. Being sent to the naughty box for the actions of a customer, that was subsequently fired, with no firm date on when the CSPS service would be restored. And championing how to run successful campaigns and navigate the approvals process and its constant changes. Its 2025, sending an SMS should not be that hard!

An important strength CSPs have is their customer focus, through their joint trials and tribulations build a strong, trusted customer relationship. Hence CSPs and location aggregators are surviving despite everything.

Post Quantum World

TADSummit always leads on emerging technologies that are often overlooked or dismissed.

At the start of 2024, I thought quantum computing was over 10 years out. With the recent Google success on their quantum computing chip, Willow. Potentially it could be 4-7 years. Especially if we see a couple more leaps like Willow.

Kevin Graham, ex-Vonage, shares an approach from Cavero Quantum which can provide additional protection on top of today’s encryption. And manages the migration to a post-quantum world.

Action is not yet required, but have a plan.

Camara – Network APIs

Camara is repeating the mistakes of OneAPI from over one decade ago. Part of the reason is its the same people repeating the mistakes.

Beware the lies and BS. Banks do not love SIM Swap APIs. They consider SIM swap a telco failure. That is compounded by not publicly taking the offending employees to court.

API success comes from solving a problem for which the customer will pay. The API is not a designed by committee, rather built to solve a particular problem.

There is a wrap for the API, it could be as simple as solid documentation. It could be additional capabilities such as IP information for a quick and dirty estimate. Go to market is often an afterthought. That is how the service is delivered and integrated into the customer’s environment. The API definition is only a tiny piece of the solution.

Keep a watching brief, you’re going to hear a lot about Camara through 2025, but I have significant concerns. Based on my API experience, having warned the industry on OneAPI that was ignored, and extensive programmable QoS experience.

RCS, just keep watching in 2025 (except Europe)

2024 was not the year of RCS, as predicted. That’s a weak prediction.

You could possibly see lots of buzz as Google was/is targeting the US for RCS in 2025. Politics seem to be creating an air of uncertainty in the US.

In the US, brands remain confused about RCS. How to build RCS Apps, why are the RCS conversations API not already built into the popular CRM apps, WhatsApp APIs are? What’s the pricing? Its 2025, aren’t we supported to be launching soon? What is Google’s role versus DCAs & CSPs & Aggregators & Telcos. It all seems complex and moving in slow motion.

In Asia and Middle East it’s generally WhatsApp, or a local champion like WeChat (China), Line (Japan), etc.

Europe: Google is making the investment to stimulate the RCS market. It will be RCS’s best chance.

Just keep watching, except in Europe where the time is to experiment.

vCon and SCITT, Trust and Compliance at scale

Here is a nice review of vCon’s journey to date. https://blog.tadsummit.com/2024/10/29/the-rise-and-rise-of-vcon/

vCon, virtual Conversation, is a file type for conversations. Enables businesses to listen to their customers at scale; and ensure compliance of customer data in AI training. The vCon hacks at TADHack Global 2024 were numerous and impressive. Developers showed, yet got-it, and where applying vCon in unique and innovative ways. Next stop from that is deployments.

SCITT, Supply Chain Integrity, Transparency and Trust, enables right to know and right to erasure. Auditors and regulators can know the personal data contained in a vCon. Personal data within an enterprise can be managed. And fakes exposed. Together vCon and SCITT are now ready for prime time, see how easy Sebastian integrated vCon into DT’s CPaaS.

The time is now for vCon!

Voice AI is good enough for some use cases

2025 will be the year of Voice AI / LLM. It’s now good enough for some use cases. See Vida as a focused example, https://blog.tadsummit.com/2024/11/13/lyle-pratt-2/

The mashing up of LLMs and SaaS is leading to some confusion. Check out this panel discussion: https://blog.tadsummit.com/2024/11/01/tadsummit-panel-discussion-are-llms-about-to-disrupt-enterprise-saas-software-as-a-service/. LLMs will not replace SaaS, rather automate some processes with in it.

Bird is shaking up the industry with the Autonomous Enterprise pitch, Bird Box. See this in depth discussion. https://blog.tadsummit.com/2025/01/14/robert-vis-on-bird-box/.

Voice AI ia a tough technology for large vendors, given its rapid development. Keep an eye on Ultravox.ai (open source) as it avoids an OpenAI dependency.

Lots of cash being raised: Clerk Chat, Vida, VAPI, etc.

https://blog.tadsummit.com/2024/11/05/clerk-chat/
https://blog.tadsummit.com/2024/12/13/vapi-raise-20m-series-a/
https://blog.tadsummit.com/2024/11/13/lyle-pratt-2/

Action on Voice AI is required, but first check out possible use cases to see if they are focused enough to work in your situation.

Messaging Monopolies

Can a foreign owned TCR exist in Trump’s America? Doubtful, they need to get it sold ASAP. Ericsson sold iConectiv to the US entity, Koch Equity Developments in 2024, https://alanquayle.com/2024/08/cxtech-week-34-2024/.

Regional Complexity: There’s rumored to be a possible TCR 2.0. There are claims CTIA provides RCS approvals, not TCR. And Google is keeping its head down on RCS to not attract the attention of Musk.

Remember the shameful racist texts after the election? How is that possible given the TCR?

Internationally AIT continues to grow from the creation of local monopolies, especially in LATAM
https://alanquayle.com/2024/11/latam-a2p-sms/.

WhatsApp continues gain ground in A2P messaging around the world, clear and simple pricing, significant consumer adoption, significant conversation API adoption in SaaS, and importantly in today’s world end to end encryption. Even in North America WhatApp is a channel hard to ignore for larger brands.

Honest CPaaS Review

I’m proud to have released the Honest CPaaS Review. It brings together over one year of work, shows how the challenges facing the messaging industry can be solved. CPaaS are both an enabler of the problems and part of the solution.

I’ve been calling for a return to honesty and integrity in the industry. Most CPaaS are operating with honesty and integrity, however, some are not and surprisingly was being protected by industry bodies. Until that is resolved customers will continue to be robbed, grandmas spammed, and smaller locally focused messaging businesses squeezed out of existence.

Here are just a few data points:

41% of 65+ year olds have stopped answering calls (source Truecaller)
According to Juniper Research, global losses are $38B (2023), projected to be $91B (2028). Through account takeover, identity theft, phishing / email compromise.
56M Americans are impacted by scams every year (source Truecaller).

I receive thanks from many in the industry in one on one meetings. For bringing light and the shady practices in communications. A few in the industry stand shoulder to shoulder and contribute to exposing the truth. Like Robert Vis, Daniel Gill, Kevin Graham, Rick Joyce, Jeremy Turner, Aaron Birnbaum, Bohdan Hopanchuk, Muhammad Wahab Sultan, YouMail, Giovanni Tarone, and the whole TADS community.

Some of those people have been threaten, some have been told they can no longer be friends. TADS sponsors are targeted. There are people who are not behaving the honesty and integrity. Which casts and shadow on the whole industry.

Remember, Remember the 5th of November

The separation of powers is no more in the US. This is a unique time in America’s history, anything could happen. And this impacts everyone, https://alanquayle.com/2024/11/cxtech-week-47-2024/.

All my predictions come with this rider.

CyberSecurity Angst

The PSTN was hacked (again)! In December the FBI and CISA advised US citizens against using the PSTN. Senate Intelligence Committee Chair Mark Warner (D-Va.) described it as the “most serious breach in our history.” Other countries have also been hacked, the PSTN is old and a leaky bucket.

“Unless you are using a specialized app (WhatsApp / Signal), any one of us and every one of us today is subject to the review by the Chinese Communist government of any cell phone conversation you have with anyone in America,” Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.), ranking member of the Senate Armed Services Committee’s cyber subcommittee.

I review more here: https://alanquayle.com/2024/12/fbi-and-cisa-urge-use-of-encrypted-communications/.

Any middle schooler can telnet to IP routers in some carriers’ networks, there are decades old networking equipment in use. It’s not just Huawei network equipment. TCR is a foreign owned monopoly controlling 10DLC A2P SMS campaigns. Check out my review of 2024 on their nefarious activities, https://alanquayle.com/2024/12/review-of-2024/.

Recent posts from some carriers indicate everything is fine, the PSTN is secure again, or T-Mobile US uses the Shaggy defense, “it wasn’t me.”

Here’s the perspective of Ethical Hackers on the issue: https://blog.tadsummit.com/2024/12/12/jeremy-turner-aaron-birnbaum-bohdan-hopanchuk/. The PSTN is not secure.

The real concern is your data can be exposed in real time on the dark web. Not that China is spying, unless you’re a politician.

We’ve been here before, remember when NIST depreciated using SMS for 2FA in 2016. It took theft (Artificially Inflated Traffic) to get businesses to act. For example, Twitter was losing $60M per year to AIT in 2023.

RCS is no more secure than SMS, it’s another nail in the long failure to launch of RCS (16+ years). Apple now claims RCS is just an option, Samsung has pulled back from RCS, Google has a political headache with RCS in the US.

WhatsApp use is rising in North America, now over 110M active users. Look at the US lawmakers now using it. It’s good enough for the average citizen. Meta’s CEO bent the knee, https://www.youtube.com/shorts/f8xd9Zrog6k. WhatsApp is dominant in many countries around the world, along with national champions like WeChat, Line, and Kakao.

hSenid Mobile’s CPaaS evolution is SMS to WhatsApp, not RCS. The failure to launch as turns some markets off from RCS. The argument for RCS is, it’s on everyone’s phone and will just be there. That argument is false as being there does not mean usage, there’s a whole wrap of integrations and packaging and adopting that WhatsApp has delivered over the years.

Secure messaging solutions exist, Matrix is used by the military of many governments, including the US, France, and Germany.

There’s no quick fix to the current cybersecurity headache. Just like you moved your website to HTTPS, you’re going to need to encrypt your communications.

What does it mean for SMS 2FA? WhatsApp, Signal, and passkeys as biometrics have not yet been hacked will continue to rise in use. It will likely be a slow transition.

The cybersecurity issue will rumble on through 2025 and for the next decade. The telecoms industry has a massive legacy infrastructure headache and is to an extent playing catch up in cybersecurity. A simple example is RCS lacks end to end security, that has been table stakes for messaging apps for the past decade.

2025 Will be a great year for Programmable Communications / Telecoms

I know the above trends appear to be a bit of a downer. Highlighting issues, but I have shown that solutions are available to protect business from theft and grandma being spammed. All that is required is honesty and integrity.

On the financial side in programmable telecoms, Moez Kassam and Anson Funds raised Twilio’s stock from $42 to $110. The information provided in TADSummit’s Truth in Telecoms podcast helped lead to $100M profit for Anson on Twilio

There is $1T in Private Equity looking for investments. $500B needs to be spent or returned in 2025. and another $500B has been raised! The problems highlighted are all opportunities as investors have cash.

We can start chanting, IPO, IPO, IPO! Syniverse lost T-Mobile US’s aggregation business to Infobip in 2024. This is objective proof, don’t spam Grandma. Infobip’s IPO could be in 2025, or a restructuring with Private Equity investment. Cash will be flowing, though there needs to be a break from the past misbehaviors.

Trust and Integrity are the keys to success in 2025.